Excerpts from Qlik AutoML training, pulling out key points that you should do prior to running any Machine Learning (ML) analysis.

Data analysis and discovery

• Explore the data

• How many observations have you collected

• Is this enough to predict on

• Are there gaps or nulls in key data points

• Do you need to reassess your data collections

• Do you understand the distribution of your data

• Do you have a normal distribution

• Is it skewed?  Are there outliers?

• What is the range, mean, and median

• What is time variant vs non-time variant data

• With time variant, is the data time stamped to be aggregated appropriately

• Will it be available at the time of the prediction

• Review correlations - get early insights into data in order to refine hypothesis

• Target correlation

• The stratification and/or correlations of the target exist across some of the features

• Check for signals

• Are the directional patterns in the features to target relationships intuitive

• Correlation matrix

• Features that are highly correlated to one another may be redundant and a cause for noise, not an additional signal

• Consider selecting a single feature from groups that appear to capture the same behaviors in the data

• Or else determine if there is a single feature driving both

• Apply business knowledge

• Is historical data indicative of today's operating environment

• Have systems or data collection practices significantly change in the collection window

• How does your domain experience explain and validate data

• If data doesn't align to your assumptions, it could mean there are data issues or assumptions are off

• What additional features need to be collected or engineered

• Clean and generalize forms - should try to use a model that generalizes when possible

• Remove outliers - which could impede an algorithm ability to discern general patterns in the data. 

• Get rid of them

• Address distribution oddities like skews, tails, multi-modal shapes in your data

• May require additional data transformation or future feature design

• One hint to group low volume categories and round or remove tails in numeric features

• Replace null or missing values

• with others or unknown when appropriate in order to gain extra value from a sparse column

• Address correlated features

• By remove redundant features

• Engineering new features to extract additional information

• Feature engineering - the process of creating new features from current ones

• To gain additional predictive power from source data collected to address a business question

• Date feature engineering

• Parse date into columns (MM,DD,YY)

• Creating segments like seasons, quarters, semesters

• Calculating date difference between 2 dates

• Others

• Gender

• Assigning gender based on Mr or Mrs

• Creating median income from zipcode and income

• Parsing customer address to City, State, Zip

• Feature design - reviewing the features in your dataset to determine what possible issues may exist or improvements that can be made

• Architecting good features include

• Leveraging business acumen - you are the expert. Use it to your advantage

• Expressing features in a way that ties to the target

• Consider factors like

• Should time factor into the future

• Does rate of change matter

• Should a feature be normalized to account for differences across subsets of data

• Do null values mean something

• Recognizing data leakage - when does the data that you are using to train an ML algorithm include the information you are trying to predict

• Data leakage can lead to false assumptions

• Data leakage can lead to model performing better in training vs real world

• Can cause false assurance of how well the model actually performs

• Prevent data leakage

• Pay attention to time constraints included in your identified business questions

• All data inside of the training set must be relevant to the time constraints set forth by the business questions

• Types of data leakage - result in model performing more poorly in real world vs training

• One or more features in the training set include information that wouldn't be known at time of leakage

• When one or more features in the training set can be used to derive the target variable you are trying to predict

• Do additional analysis if AutoML score > 85% for data leakage

• Ways to identify data leakage

• High scores - if scores are really high, there might be leakage

• Feature importance - if one feature is a lot more important than everything else

• Chronological holdout - if this score is drastically lower than cross validation

• Logic - will you have the information for records at the time you want to make a prediction.  Will the records be the same in 30 days

• How to fix data leakage

• If you identify a column that should not be used to train a model, then drop the column from being used in the model.  Keep in data set

• Hold time constant on that feature so that it becomes a good feature (e.g. fixing aggregation)

• Ways to prevent data leakage

• Having well defined business questions with learning framework following ingredients

• Event trigger

• Target (value & horizon)

• Features

• Prediction point